Who buys new nuclear, by reactor class: the executed deals, equity stakes, prepayments, frameworks, and government programs on the record, and what it takes to sell into each sector. Buyer positions are sourced facts; sector plans are this site’s judgment, labeled as such. As of 2026-08-17.
The demand matrix
Each cell shows the strongest position a buyer holds in a reactor class, on a ladder that keeps contracts, stakes, moved money, frameworks, programs, and statements apart. Details and sources sit in the ledger below; the matrix answers only who touches what.
A binding contract, funded agreement, final investment decision, or work in regulatory review.
EQUITY · Equity / board
An investment or governance stake in a reactor company.
DEPOSIT · Prepayment / deposit
Cash moved for future power or units before the offtake itself is signed.
FRAME · Framework / LOI
A nonbinding master agreement, memorandum, or letter of intent.
PROGRAM · Program / solicitation
A government demand program, fund, or open solicitation.
INTEREST · Stated interest
A public statement or funded study, with no instrument behind it.
Ladder rungs are never collapsed: a letter of intent is not a contract, a program is not an order, and a statement is not a commitment. “Any class” holds positions that create demand without picking a reactor size.
Positions on the record
Every position behind the matrix, with its date and source. Figures stay inside their own claims and are never summed across rows. Open a sector to read its buyers, or follow a chip from the matrix above to jump straight to one.
Hyperscalers & data centers11 buyers+
Microsoft
Bought the first restart: existing-fleet megawatts deliverable this decade.
LWR · EXEC · 2024-0920-year PPA with Constellation launching the Crane Clean Energy Center, the Three Mile Island Unit 1 restart, about 835 MW.Source ↗
ANY · FRAME · 2024-05Duke Energy Accelerating Clean Energy MOU, alongside Amazon, Google, and Nucor, to develop anchor tariffs funding clean-firm generation.Source ↗
Meta
One executed restart PPA plus two staged SMR frameworks with different vendors.
LWR · EXEC · 2025-0620-year PPA for Constellation's Clinton Clean Energy Center in Illinois: 1,121 MW from June 2027, supporting relicensing plus a 30 MW uprate.Source ↗
SMR · FRAME · 2026-01Oklo agreement supporting up to 1.2 GW in southern Ohio, with Meta able to prepay for power and fund development; first phase stated as early as 2030.Source ↗
SMR · FRAME · 2026-01TerraPower framework for up to eight Natrium plants, up to 2.8 GW baseload or 4 GW with the storage boost; no site named.Source ↗
Google
A restart PPA for this decade and the order-book template for the next.
LWR · EXEC · 2025-1025-year PPA underpinning NextEra's restart of Duane Arnold, Iowa's only nuclear plant (615 MW), targeted online in early 2029.Source ↗
SMR · FRAME · 2024-10Kairos master plant development agreement for up to 500 MW by 2035, sold plant by plant under PPAs; Hermes 2, the first deployment, is under construction.Source ↗
Amazon
The deepest SMR position: equity, a funded first phase, and a 5 GW frame.
SMR · EQUITY · 2024-10Amazon's Climate Pledge Fund anchored X-energy's roughly $500M Series C-1, funding Xe-100 design completion, licensing, and the first TRISO-X fuel facility phase.Source ↗
SMR · EQUITY · 2024-10The stake came with two X-energy board seats; its size was not disclosed.Source ↗
SMR · EXEC · 2024-10Development and funding agreement with Energy Northwest covering Cascade's initial four Xe-100 modules (320 MWe) at Richland, on a site licensed for up to 960 MWe.Source ↗
SMR · FRAME · 2024-10Options-based framework targeting more than 5 GW of Xe-100 projects online in the U.S. by 2039.Source ↗
Oracle
A stated design intent with no vendor, site, or contract disclosed since.
SMR · INTEREST · 2024-09Chairman Larry Ellison told the September 2024 earnings call Oracle is designing a gigawatt data center powered by three small modular reactors, with building permits secured.Source ↗
Switch
The largest single frame on the board, and entirely nonbinding.
SMR · FRAME · 2024-12Master power agreement with Oklo framing 12 GW of Aurora deployment by 2044; individual power contracts still to be signed.Source ↗
Equinix
Moves cash early for queue position: a prepayment and the first preorder.
SMR · DEPOSIT · 2024-04Prepaid Oklo $25M under a pre-agreement carrying a 36-month right of first refusal on up to 500 MWe.Source ↗
MICRO · DEPOSIT · 2025-08Preorder with deposits for 20 Radiant Kaleidos microreactors, the first commercial microreactor preorder on record.Source ↗
Crusoe
A neocloud pairing modular data centers with a microreactor developer on federal land.
MICRO · FRAME · 2026-07Strategic partnership with Aalo to power a Crusoe Spark modular data center at Idaho National Laboratory in 2027, framed as the first nuclear-powered AI factory; no megawatts contracted.Source ↗
NVIDIA
Supplies the load and buys into the supply: reactor equity plus a pilot pairing.
SMR · EQUITY · 2025-06NVentures, NVIDIA's venture arm, led TerraPower's $650M raise alongside Bill Gates and HD Hyundai.Source ↗
MICRO · FRAME · 2026-08Collaboration with Valar Atomics on a roughly 30 MW pilot AI data center in Emery County, Utah, announced with the Sequoia-led Series B; no executed offtake.Source ↗
Riot Platforms
Bitcoin-mining load converting to AI data centers, shopping for firm power.
SMR · FRAME · 2026-05Collaboration with Terrestrial Energy scoped up to 4 GW across data-center sites in Texas and Kentucky; an MOU-level collaboration, not an order.Source ↗
Endeavour
A data-center developer partnered on borehole microreactors.
MICRO · FRAME · 2025-01Partnership with Deep Fission to co-develop 2 GW of downhole capacity for a data-center portfolio, first reactors stated for 2029.Source ↗
Frontier AI labs1 buyer+
OpenAI
OpenAI itself holds no Oklo stake; only its CEO's personal chairmanship, now ended, connects the two.
SMR · INTEREST · 2025-04Sam Altman personally took Oklo public through a merger with his AltC Acquisition Corp in May 2024 and chaired its board; he stepped down in April 2025, reported as freeing Oklo to explore partnerships with OpenAI and other hyperscalers. OpenAI itself has never held equity, a board seat, or any documented agreement with Oklo.Source ↗
Oil & gas2 buyers+
Diamondback Energy
The template for Permian field electrification: behind-the-meter, 20 years.
SMR · FRAME · 2024-04Nonbinding letter of intent with Oklo toward a 20-year agreement for 50 MW near Midland, Texas for Permian Basin operations.Source ↗
Cenovus / Pathways Alliance
Oil-sands steam is the studied process-heat market; no project has advanced.
SMR · INTEREST · 2023-09Alberta committed C$7M toward a C$26.7M Cenovus-led study of how SMRs could supply non-emitting process heat and power to oil-sands steam-assisted gravity drainage operations.Source ↗
Industrial & international companies3 buyers+
Dow
The first industrial host: power and process heat inside the fence line.
SMR · EXEC · 2026-05Joint development with X-energy at Seadrift, Texas: the four-module Long Mott project (4 × 80 MWe) is in NRC construction-permit review after the environmental review closed with no significant impact found.Source ↗
Tata Chemicals
A Mumbai-headquartered buyer for a Wyoming soda-ash site: industrial heat plus geopolitics.
MICRO · FRAME · 2024-12Letter of intent with BWXT for up to eight BANR units at the Green River, Wyoming soda-ash operation, targeting the early 2030s; commercial terms still to be established.Source ↗
Nucor
Steelmaking load in the anchor-tariff experiment beside the hyperscalers.
ANY · FRAME · 2024-05Duke Energy Accelerating Clean Energy MOU, alongside Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, to develop rate structures where large customers fund clean-firm generation.Source ↗
Federal & defense5 buyers+
DOD Strategic Capabilities Office
The prototype buyer: paid for the first transportable microreactor outright.
MICRO · EXEC · 2022-06Project Pele: BWXT is building the transportable 1.5 MWe prototype, being assembled at Idaho National Laboratory under a cost-type contract with a ceiling up to $300M.Source ↗
DIU / Department of the Air Force
Buys delivery dates: the first contract that obliges a working unit at a base.
MICRO · EXEC · 2025-08Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations delivery agreement with Radiant: a mass-manufactured Kaleidos delivered to a base within 36 months of the August 2025 signing, with Antares and Westinghouse still competing for Colorado and Montana assignments.Source ↗
MICRO · FRAME · 2025-06Air Force and DLA notice of intent to award Oklo a 5 MW microreactor at Eielson AFB, Alaska under a prospective 30-year fixed-price power arrangement, pending NRC licensing.Source ↗
MICRO · EXEC · 2026-04Finalized ANPI base assignments pairing each developer with a contractor-owned unit: Radiant's Kaleidos (1 MWe) to Buckley Space Force Base, Colorado; Westinghouse's eVinci to Malmstrom Air Force Base, Montana; Antares' R1 (200-300 kW) to Joint Base San Antonio, Texas, with Radiant and Antares targeting delivery as early as 2028.Source ↗
U.S. Army
A program of record plus an executive-order deadline on the calendar.
MICRO · PROGRAM · 2025-10The Janus Program solicits commercially owned and operated microreactors on Army installations, paid against milestones; site selection follows, with no vendor award named.Source ↗
MICRO · PROGRAM · 2025-11Named nine candidate Janus installations after on-site assessment, including Fort Wainwright, Alaska, a net power importer since its coal cogeneration plant stopped exporting; DIU opened an area-of-interest solicitation for industry technical proposals, with final site count and vendor awards still to be determined.Source ↗
MICRO · PROGRAM · 2025-05Executive Order 14299 directs an Army-regulated reactor operating at a domestic military installation by September 30, 2028.Source ↗
Department of Energy
The demand-maker: authorization channels, federal sites, and fleet uprates.
MICRO · PROGRAM · 2026-07The Reactor Pilot Program, DOME test bed, and Nuclear Energy Launch Pad put four DOE-authorized criticalities on the board by July 4, 2026, the authorization channel first units are using.Source ↗
ANY · PROGRAM · 2025-12Selected Idaho National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Paducah, and Savannah River in December 2025 to host AI data centers paired with new generation, including co-located advanced reactors.Source ↗
LWR · PROGRAM · 2026-03UPRISE targets 2.5 GW of added capacity by 2027 and 5 GW by 2029 through uprates, license renewals, and restarts of the existing fleet.Source ↗
NASA
Space power runs the same model: companies own the reactor and sell the power.
MICRO · PROGRAM · 2025-12Under NASA's fission surface power approach, companies own the reactors and sell the power through Space Act Agreements; Antares delivered an electrically heated prototype to Marshall Space Flight Center for testing.Source ↗
States & power authorities3 buyers+
Tennessee Valley Authority
Public power as first mover: the only utility-led SMR permit in NRC review.
SMR · EXEC · 2026-07Clinch River Unit 1 (BWRX-300) construction-permit application under NRC review, with the safety evaluation complete and a mandatory hearing noticed for August 2026.Source ↗
SMR · FRAME · 2025-09Collaborative agreement with ENTRA1 Energy to deploy up to 6 GW of NuScale-based capacity across TVA's seven-state region; no power contract signed.Source ↗
New York Power Authority
A public-power build mandate with a developer competition already running.
ANY · PROGRAM · 2026-06Directed in June 2025 to develop at least 1 GW of advanced nuclear upstate; the 2025 solicitations drew responses from more than 30 entities, including 23 developer teams, and a developer RFQ followed in 2026.Source ↗
Texas / TANEO
A state checkbook for development and construction costs, open now.
ANY · PROGRAM · 2026-04The $350M Texas Advanced Nuclear Development Fund opened in April 2026 through two reimbursement programs, one for advanced nuclear construction and one for project design and supply chain work.Source ↗
International markets15 buyers+
United Kingdom
A national SMR selection plus the first regulated-asset-base large build.
SMR · EXECGreat British Energy - Nuclear selected Rolls-Royce SMR as its preferred technology partner in June 2025 and signed the development contract, with £2.6B allocated in the 2025 Spending Review to enable it.Source ↗
LWR · EXEC · 2025-07Sizewell C reached its final investment decision in July 2025 under the first nuclear regulated-asset-base structure, around £38B, with the UK government the largest shareholder.Source ↗
Poland
The largest committed BWRX-300 export pipeline in Europe.
SMR · EXEC · 2026-02GE Vernova Hitachi and Orlen Synthos Green Energy signed the Poland Generic Design Agreement in Washington on February 24, 2026, advancing the Polish generic design of the BWRX-300.Source ↗
SMR · EXECPoland's first SMR will be constructed at Włocławek, one of six locations OSGE shortlisted in 2023 for geological surveys to host BWRX-300 plants.Source ↗
European industrials (Poland & UK)
The only executed microreactor PPA book anywhere is industrial and European.
MICRO · EXEC · 2024-03Industrial partners in Poland and the UK hold 34 executed Last Energy PPAs totaling 680 MW, roughly $18.9B in power sales.Source ↗
Canada (Ontario & Saskatchewan)
The design proofs U.S. projects lean on: first BWRX-300 build, first eVinci customer.
SMR · EXEC · 2025-05Ontario approved OPG's four-unit Darlington BWRX-300 program at C$20.9B in 2024 dollars, C$7.7B of it for the first unit and shared systems.Source ↗
MICRO · FRAMEThe Saskatchewan Research Council is the first announced commercial eVinci customer, planning a pilot by 2029.Source ↗
Romania
The first NuScale final investment decision anywhere.
SMR · EXEC · 2026-02RoPower took the final investment decision for a 462 MWe six-module NuScale plant at Doicești.Source ↗
Japan (sovereign framework)
Allied capital routed into named U.S. reactor programs at head-of-government level.
SMR · FRAME · 2026-03The U.S.-Japan investment framework earmarks up to $40B for BWRX-300 builds at unidentified Tennessee and Alabama sites; a strategic framework, not a construction contract.Source ↗
Philippines
A treaty ally building the legal and technical scaffolding for SMRs before picking a vendor.
MICRO · FRAME · 2023-11Meralco PowerGen and Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation signed a cooperation agreement, witnessed by President Marcos, for a pre-feasibility study of USNC's 15 MWe Micro-Modular Reactor; Meralco holds an option to pursue a full feasibility study on the results.Source ↗
ANY · PROGRAM · 2026-02The U.S. Trade and Development Agency committed $2.7M to Meralco PowerGen for a technical review of U.S. SMR designs and an implementation roadmap, under the U.S.-Philippines 123 Agreement (effective July 2024) and toward the Philippines' stated goal of 1,200 MW of nuclear capacity online by 2032.Source ↗
South Korea
TerraPower's second-largest shareholder becomes a customer: a term sheet to build Korea's first commercial Natrium plant.
SMR · FRAME · 2026-08SK Innovation and TerraPower signed a term sheet to advance Korea's first commercial Natrium plant under a domestic 'K-Sodium' business model, alongside Hyundai Engineering & Construction as EPC contractor for up to eight Natrium reactors, HD Hyundai as manufacturing partner, and Export-Import Bank of Korea financing; no financial terms disclosed.Source ↗
MICRO · INTEREST · 2026-01Nano Nuclear Energy and DS Dansuk signed a non-binding, non-exclusive MOU for DS Dansuk to serve as local coordinator (siting, supply chain, regulatory) for Nano's KRONOS Micro Modular Reactor under Korea's 'One Factory, One MMR' strategy.Source ↗
Finland & Sweden
The Nordic BWRX-300 pipeline: one utility already down to two finalists, another running early engineering across both countries.
SMR · PROGRAM · 2025-08Vattenfall narrowed its Värö Peninsula new-build competition (about 1,500 MW) from 75 initial suppliers to two finalists, GE Vernova (five BWRX-300 units) and Rolls-Royce SMR (three units); the process continues toward a final supplier.Source ↗
SMR · FRAME · 2025-07GE Vernova Hitachi and Fortum signed an early-works agreement for pre-licensing and site-adaptation engineering on the BWRX-300 in both Finland and Sweden, with potential deployment in the second half of the 2030s, after Fortum's own feasibility study selected the design as a candidate for both countries.Source ↗
Norway
A developer with ten identified sites partners for delivery experience, in a country weighing a reactor near its Arctic border.
SMR · FRAME · 2025-11Norsk Kjernekraft and Aecon (Canada's contractor on Darlington's BWRX-300) entered a strategic cooperation covering feasibility studies, licensing, stakeholder engagement, and site identification for the BWRX-300 across ten locations Norsk Kjernekraft has identified for environmental assessment.Source ↗
Lithuania
A former nuclear-plant operator, a Polish developer with regional rights, and GE Vernova Hitachi assessing one design together.
SMR · FRAMEAltra (operator of the shut-down Ignalina plant), Poland's SGE, and GE Vernova Hitachi signed an MOU in Washington, with Lithuania's energy minister and two DOE deputy assistant secretaries present, to assess the technical and economic feasibility of BWRX-300 deployment in Lithuania.Source ↗
Bulgaria
A second US-funded SMR study for the state generator, building on a 2021 look that went no further.
SMR · PROGRAM · 2024-12USTDA and state-owned Bulgarian Energy Holding agreed to a detailed technical prefeasibility study of US-sourced SMR design options, potential sites, and an implementation roadmap including financing, building on a 2021 Fluor-NuScale MOU that did not advance.Source ↗
Slovakia
One vendor courting the same state utility for both a large plant and its small-reactor sibling.
SMR · FRAME · 2023-07Westinghouse and state-owned JAVYS signed MOUs framing collaboration on both the AP1000 large reactor and the AP300 small modular reactor for Slovakia; Westinghouse targets AP300 design certification by 2027 and a first unit operating in 2033.Source ↗
Ghana
The template for World Bank-era emerging-market deals: U.S. design, local owner-operator.
SMR · FRAME · 2024-08Nuclear Power Ghana and Regnum Technology Group agreed to deploy a NuScale VOYGR-12 plant, planned as Africa's first commercial advanced light-water SMR, with a subsidiary company to own and operate it.Source ↗
World Bank / IAEA
The financing gate that just opened for every emerging-market buyer.
ANY · PROGRAM · 2025-06The World Bank Group formalized an IAEA partnership in June 2025, its first concrete step to reengage with nuclear power in decades, covering life extension of existing plants and SMR development for developing countries.Source ↗
Remote & high-reliability operations3 buyers+
State of Alaska
The aggregator for the one market where microreactor FOAK economics already clear.
MICRO · PROGRAMA statewide push to replace rural diesel generation with microreactors, with a stated goal of all Alaskans having access to 10-cent power by 2030 and state microreactor siting law in place.Source ↗
Puerto Rico
An island grid running on imported fossil fuels, with a DOE-funded feasibility case and a legislature now acting on it.
ANY · INTEREST · 2020-05DOE's Idaho National Laboratory funded and reviewed a preliminary feasibility study by the Nuclear Alternative Project, concluding SMRs and microreactors could supply zero-emission, hurricane-resilient baseload power cost-competitive with the mobile gas units and combined-cycle turbines PREPA proposed for its fleet replacement.Source ↗
ANY · INTEREST · 2026-05Proyecto de la Cámara 1092, which would amend Puerto Rico's energy policy act to direct government evaluation of SMR deployment, drew supporting testimony from the Puerto Rico Energy Bureau's president and an ANS student chapter at a House Economic Development Commission hearing; the bill had not passed as of the hearing.Source ↗
ANY · INTEREST · 2026-06The full Puerto Rico House of Representatives passed C.P. 1092, advancing it to the Senate; the bill keeps the island's 100%-renewable-by-2050 goal but permits evaluating nuclear as a low-emission complementary technology under NRC supervision, and directs the University of Puerto Rico to build nuclear-engineering academic programs. Still a bill, not law: no funded program exists until the Senate and governor act.Source ↗
Guam
The Pacific base cluster where lawmakers say DOD money already exists, and DOD itself says nothing has been decided.
MICRO · INTEREST · 2026-05Guam senators say DOD has set aside roughly $400M for small reactors at two Guam installations, a figure attributed to Sen. Telo Taitague; Guam's Community Defense Liaison Office says the territory's government has received no official DOD notification or confirmed plan.Source ↗
ANY · INTEREST · 2025-12The FY2026 NDAA, signed into law December 2025, requires the Secretary of Defense to give Congress and Guam's governor at least one year's notice before placing any nuclear reactor on the island, a provision credited to Del. James Moylan; a procedural notice requirement, not evidence DOD has a site or plan.Source ↗
Costs by reactor class, contracting mechanisms, and underwriters live on the financing page; per-company deal histories live on each company dossier.
Sector plans
The site’s business-development read of each sector. Evidence lines carry their own sources; the thesis, plays, and watch item in each plan are judgment derived from the records on this page, not sourced claims.
Hyperscalers & data centers4 plays+
Thesis · site judgmentThe deepest-pocketed buyers split their nuclear demand three ways: restarts and uprates for megawatts this decade, grid-scale SMR frameworks for the early 2030s, and factory microreactors as the modular hedge. They buy delivery dates, not technology.
EvidenceDOE's UPRISE initiative targets 2.5 GW of added capacity by 2027 and 5 GW by 2029 through uprates and restarts, the same near-term channel the three executed hyperscaler PPAs bought into.Source ↗
EvidenceTransferable 45Y/48E tax credits cover a large share of capital for reactors beginning construction by 2034, and nuclear survived the 2025 phase-outs that hit wind and solar.Source ↗
EvidenceFour federal sites were selected in December 2025 to pair AI data centers with new generation, including co-located reactors, putting land and authorization behind the co-location thesis.Source ↗
Anchor on restarts and uprates first.
The only nuclear megawatts deliverable before 2030 are existing-fleet megawatts, and all three executed hyperscaler deals (Crane, Clinton, Duane Arnold) are exactly that shape.
Structure SMR sales as order books with per-plant PPAs.
The Google-Kairos master agreement shape gives the buyer optionality and gives the developer a book that supply chains and lenders can invest against.
Take deposits for queue position.
Equinix moved cash on both ends of the market, a $25M Oklo prepayment and deposits on 20 Kaleidos units, years before any commercial operation date.
Expect equity asks alongside offtake.
Amazon anchored X-energy's round and NVIDIA led TerraPower's; a board seat prices cheaper than a cost overrun for buyers who intend to order fleets.
Watch · site judgmentThe first SMR framework converting to a signed per-plant power contract. NuScale management targets converting the TVA and ENTRA1 collaboration by the end of 2026; whoever converts first resets every negotiation that follows.
Frontier AI labs3 plays+
Thesis · site judgmentLabs rent most of their compute from hyperscalers and neoclouds, so lab demand reaches reactors through the landlords. The BD target is the landlord; the lab is the demand signal behind it.
EvidenceSam Altman stepped down as Oklo chairman in April 2025, a move that gives the reactor company more flexibility to explore partnerships with OpenAI and other hyperscalers.Source ↗
Sell to the landlord, not the tenant.
Crusoe, Switch, and Equinix hold the reactor positions; the labs hold the compute contracts. The buyer of record is whoever owns the building.
Watch governance before offtake.
The one documented lab connection ran through its CEO's personal chairmanship for a decade before any supply talk, not a corporate stake; the step-down is what made a purchase possible.
Price the brand.
A lab-branded nuclear PPA carries announcement value for both sides beyond the electrons; the hyperscaler restart deals set the precedent for headline pricing.
Watch · site judgmentAn executed OpenAI-Oklo supply agreement would be the first direct lab offtake on record; the April 2025 step-down exists to permit exactly that.
Oil & gas3 plays+
Thesis · site judgmentThree postures, only one of them buying. Independents with remote always-on field load are early offtake targets; the majors are rival suppliers building gas with carbon capture for the same data centers; oil sands is a studied, stalled process-heat market.
EvidenceExxonMobil is planning a large gas-fired power plant dedicated to serving data centers, rival supply rather than nuclear demand.Source ↗
EvidenceChevron's joint development with Engine No. 1 and GE Vernova plans up to 4 GW of gas plants co-located with data centers by 2027, on seven turbines with deliveries from late 2026.Source ↗
EvidenceOklo and Diamondback Energy signed a letter of intent for 50 MW over 20 years for Permian Basin operations, the sector's only tracked offtake instrument.Source ↗
Target Permian-class electrification.
The Diamondback template (50 MW, 20 years, behind the meter) matches field load that currently runs on wellhead gas and diesel, priced far above grid power.
Treat the majors as partners and rivals, not buyers.
Exxon and Chevron are building competing gas supply, but they also hold the sites, water, and interconnection queues that nuclear projects need.
Keep oil sands on the long list.
The steam load is real and studied at C$26.7M depth, but no project has advanced; it prices as a post-FOAK market, not a first market.
Watch · site judgmentThe first executed oil-and-gas offtake. The mechanism exists on paper and in one letter of intent; a signed contract would open a market segment no announcement has yet.
Industrial & international companies3 plays+
Thesis · site judgmentIndustrial buyers purchase steam and reliability, not just electrons, and both live deals put the reactor inside the fence at an existing plant. An international industrial buyer can also carry a U.S. vendor into an allied market.
EvidenceDow's Long Mott project pairs four Xe-100 modules with the Seadrift chemical site for electricity and process heat, under NRC construction-permit review.Source ↗
EvidenceThe only executed microreactor PPA book anywhere is industrial: 34 Last Energy contracts across Poland and the UK totaling 680 MW.Source ↗
Sell process heat where gas boilers dominate.
HTGR and molten-salt outlet temperatures reach steam loads electricity cannot; the Dow and Tata deals are heat deals as much as power deals.
Use the anchor-tariff shape for buyers who will not own.
The Duke MOU structure lets industrial load fund clean-firm generation through a regulated utility without taking project risk directly.
Let one conglomerate open one country.
Tata's Wyoming letter of intent shows the deal flow can run through a foreign industrial buyer to a U.S. site, and the same relationship travels home.
Watch · site judgmentThe Long Mott construction-permit decision, with the NRC safety decision targeted for November 2026. The first industrial-host permit sets the regulatory clock every later fence-line project will be priced against.
Federal & defense4 plays+
Thesis · site judgmentGovernment is the first-mover customer on purpose. Executive-order deadlines, delivery contracts with dates, and DOE authorization channels stand in for a commercial market until NRC licenses and factory rates exist. Defense pays for resilience, not for the cheapest megawatt-hour.
EvidenceExecutive Order 14299 puts a date on demand: an Army-regulated reactor operating at a domestic installation by September 30, 2028.Source ↗
EvidenceDOE's principal deputy assistant secretary for nuclear energy says demonstration microreactors are going from start to operation in under a year, against a national goal of 400 GW by 2050.Source ↗
EvidenceThe personnel flow runs both ways: DOE's former chief counsel for nuclear policy joined the board of TRISO fuel maker Standard Nuclear in August 2026.Source ↗
EvidenceThe Air Force finalized which ANPI developer goes to which base in April 2026: Radiant to Buckley, Westinghouse to Malmstrom, Antares to JBSA.Source ↗
EvidenceGuam's government says it has received no official DOD notification of a reactor site, despite lawmakers citing roughly $400M reportedly set aside for two island installations.Source ↗
Bid every installation program.
Janus, the ANPI competition, and the Eielson template all carry deadlines that force factory discipline, and defense contracts absorb first-of-a-kind pricing that no commercial buyer will.
Use federal land and DOE authorization to build now.
The Pilot Program, DOME, the Launch Pad, and the AI-site solicitations put steel in the ground while NRC applications run; every criticality so far happened through this channel.
Design for the 30-year fixed-price shape.
The Eielson notice of intent shows the government buying power, not reactors: developer-owned, developer-operated, bankable against a federal offtaker.
Track overseas and island installations before they open a docket.
Guam shows the pattern one step earlier than Janus or ANPI did: lawmakers naming a reported budget line with no confirmed DOD program yet, the exact stage at which a BD relationship is cheapest to start.
Watch · site judgmentWhich vendor wins the first Janus milestones, whether the Executive Order 14299 reactor is operating on an installation by September 30, 2028, and whether DOD gives Guam's government the official notification its senators have been asking for.
States & power authorities3 plays+
Thesis · site judgmentStates are building demand floors with public money: a New York public-power build mandate, a Texas grant fund, and TVA's federal-power channel. State programs de-risk the first commercial units that follow the federal cohort.
EvidenceNYPA's 2025 nuclear solicitations drew responses from more than 30 entities for at least 1 GW upstate, 23 of them developer teams, and a developer RFQ followed in 2026.Source ↗
EvidenceDOE's Gen III+ pathway put $400M behind TVA's Clinch River project and $400M behind Holtec's Palisades SMRs in December 2025, the federal half of the state-federal stack.Source ↗
Compete for the two live state checkbooks.
The NYPA RFQ and the Texas fund's construction reimbursements are open now, and both reward projects that already hold federal cost share.
Treat public power as the domestic sovereign buyer.
TVA, NYPA, and the public power districts can sign multi-decade paper and carry siting politics that private load-serving entities cannot.
Stack state money on federal awards.
Clinch River carries a DOE Tier 1 award inside a state that courts nuclear; the projects that close first will hold both halves of the stack.
Watch · site judgmentNYPA's developer selection for the upstate gigawatt, and whether Texas funds its completion-bonus program in the next budget cycle.
International markets5 plays+
Thesis · site judgmentExport demand is becoming bankable: the World Bank is reengaging with nuclear for the first time in decades, allied governments are selecting vendors, and sovereign frameworks route capital into named designs. The competition is national, so BD runs government-to-government as much as company-to-company.
EvidenceThe UK ran a national competition and picked its own champion, selecting Rolls-Royce SMR as preferred technology partner in June 2025 and allocating £2.6B in the 2025 Spending Review to enable the contract.Source ↗
EvidenceOntario's Darlington program gives the BWRX-300 its first-of-a-kind proof on an approved C$20.9B budget, the reference plant behind the Polish and U.S. pipelines.Source ↗
EvidenceA treaty ally moved through the sequence in under three years: Meralco's USNC study agreement in 2023, the U.S.-Philippines 123 Agreement taking effect in 2024, and a $2.7M USTDA-funded SMR roadmap in 2026 against a stated 1,200 MW by 2032 target.Source ↗
EvidenceThe BWRX-300 export book widened past Poland in one year: finalist or MOU-stage positions now stand in Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Lithuania, all citing the Darlington and Poland reference plants rather than a first-of-a-kind case of their own.Source ↗
EvidenceSouth Korea flipped from investor to buyer: SK Innovation, already TerraPower's second-largest shareholder from a 2023 equity round, signed an August 2026 term sheet toward Korea's first commercial Natrium plant.Source ↗
Sell the fleet curve behind a reference plant.
Darlington, Doicești, and Wylfa give buyers a unit to point at; the pitch for every later unit is the learning ladder, not the prototype.
Finance the first unit with the new sovereign stack.
The World Bank re-entry, EXIM, and frameworks like the U.S.-Japan $40B earmark exist to close deals in markets whose balance sheets could not carry FOAK risk alone.
Structure emerging-market deals as owner-operator subsidiaries.
The Ghana shape, a U.S. design inside a jointly owned local operating company, answers the capability question that stalls first-time nuclear countries.
Lead treaty allies with the 123 Agreement, not the reactor pitch.
The Philippines sequence shows the legal framework (technology transfer rights, safeguards) unlocking the study money and the vendor shortlist; a reactor pitch with no 123 Agreement in place has nothing to attach to.
Convert an existing investor into a domestic customer.
SK Innovation put equity into TerraPower in 2023 with no Korean deployment attached; the 2026 term sheet shows the fastest path to a second country's first commercial unit runs through a shareholder who already knows the technology.
Watch · site judgmentThe World Bank's first actual nuclear financing, and the first non-North-American final investment decision on a U.S. SMR after Romania's.
Remote & high-reliability operations5 plays+
Thesis · site judgmentThe one market where first-of-a-kind microreactor economics already clear: remote sites pay diesel prices. Buyers are fragmented across villages, mines, and bases, so the sales motion runs through aggregators: states, co-ops, and defense logistics.
EvidenceAlaska's governor frames rural villages now dependent on diesel generation as the microreactor market, with a stated goal of 10-cent power statewide by 2030 and siting law in place since 2022.Source ↗
EvidenceMIT CEEPR's working paper analyzes the value of microreactors in providing both heat and electricity to Alaskan communities.Source ↗
EvidenceNEI's 2019 estimate put first-of-a-kind microreactor generation at $0.14 to $0.41 per kWh, overlapping remote diesel, the first market where the FOAK price closes.Source ↗
EvidencePuerto Rico's DOE-funded feasibility case, closed in 2020, cleared its first legislative chamber in 2026: the House passed C.P. 1092 after testimony from the state energy regulator's own president, sending it to the Senate.Source ↗
EvidenceGuam is the same story one stage earlier: lawmakers say a DOD budget line for two island installations exists, and the territory's government says it has no official confirmation of any plan.Source ↗
Price against delivered diesel, not grid LCOE.
The comparison that closes is fuel barged or flown into a remote site, including the logistics chain a reactor deletes for years at a time.
Lead with heat plus power.
Villages and mines buy heat too, and the CEEPR value case rests on serving both loads from one unit.
Sell through aggregators.
State programs, co-op federations, and the DLA fixed-price template pool fragmented 1 to 5 MW loads into contracts big enough to carry project overhead.
Design the O&M case for unattended years.
Multi-year cores and factory refueling are what make the remote economics work; a site that needs a resident nuclear staff never beats diesel.
Treat islands and territories as a distinct aggregator, not a state.
Puerto Rico and Guam both run on imported fuel and diesel-parity economics like Alaska, but the buyer is a legislature or DOD budget line, not a state siting statute; the sales motion is government relations first, offtake second.
Watch · site judgmentThe first microreactor operating at a truly remote commercial site, outside a laboratory or base. The Eielson award converting to an executed contract is the nearest defense-remote proof; Puerto Rico's C.P. 1092 passing, or DOD giving Guam an official answer, would each open a new island market on the same terms.
The microreactor cadence question
Could microreactors ship at 10 to 20 units a year from 2028 onward?+
1. 2026-07Prove the physics under DOE authorityFour DOE-authorized criticalities landed by July 4, 2026 through the Reactor Pilot Program and Launch Pad, each roughly a year or less from start.Source ↗
2. 2025-08Contract a delivery date, government firstThe ANPI agreement obliges Radiant to deliver a mass-manufactured unit to a military base within 36 months of its August 2025 signing.Source ↗
3. 2025-05Put a statutory date behind demandExecutive Order 14299 directs an Army-regulated reactor operating at a domestic installation by September 30, 2028.Source ↗
4. 2026-02License fuel at commercial scaleTRISO-X holds a 40-year NRC special nuclear material license for commercial HALEU fuel manufacture, the first of its kind.Source ↗
5. 2025-12Build factories sized to the targetRadiant's Oak Ridge factory has construction set to begin in early 2026, with a first mass-produced unit targeted for 2028 and a stated path to 50 reactors a year within a few years after.Source ↗
6. 2025-08Book commercial orders against the lineEquinix placed a preorder with deposits for 20 Kaleidos units, the first commercial microreactor book.Source ↗
7. 2024Ride the factory cost curveINL's bottom-up model prices a first-of-a-kind microreactor at $325/MWh and the same design at about $120/MWh once factory production is reached.Source ↗
8. 2025-12Land the units where sites are readyDOE selected Idaho, Oak Ridge, Paducah, and Savannah River to host AI data centers paired with new generation, including co-located reactors.Source ↗
Sequencing · site judgmentThe sequencing on the record is government first, commercial second. Defense and DOE programs carry the deadlines (2028), absorb first-of-a-kind pricing, and supply authorized sites, while remote markets pay diesel prices that already clear FOAK costs. A 10-to-20-unit year from 2028 onward requires all of: at least one factory shipping at rate, NRC licenses for sites off federal land, fuel deliveries at cadence from the licensed HALEU and TRISO lines, and a commercial book beyond the first preorder. Every one of those has a first instance on the record above; none yet has a second.
On the record
What the officials, executives, and manufacturers behind these positions have said+
2026-03Rian Bahran · Deputy assistant secretary, DOEAnnounced UPRISE with a target of 2.5 GW added by 2027 and 5 GW by 2029, calling uprates and restarts the fastest pathway to getting gigawatts on the grid.Source ↗
Date not statedMichael Goff · Principal deputy assistant secretary, DOE Office of Nuclear EnergySays nuclear is ready now, with demonstration microreactors going from start to operation in under a year, a 400 GW by 2050 national goal, and $2.7B awarded for uranium enrichment in January 2026.Source ↗
2024-09Larry Ellison · Chairman and CTO, OracleTold investors Oracle is designing a gigawatt-scale data center to be powered by three small modular reactors, with building permits already secured.Source ↗
2025-04Sam Altman · CEO, OpenAIStepped down as Oklo chairman in April 2025, a move giving the reactor company more flexibility to explore partnerships with OpenAI and other hyperscalers.Source ↗
Date not statedMike Dunleavy · Governor of AlaskaFrames microreactors as the replacement for rural diesel generation, with a goal of all Alaskans having access to 10-cent power by 2030.Source ↗
2025-12Radiant Industries · Microreactor developerWill build its first factory on a Manhattan Project site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, with construction from early 2026, the first mass-produced Kaleidos targeted for 2028, and production scaling to 50 reactors a year within a few years after.Source ↗
Date not statedAalo Atomics · Microreactor developerDescribes a planned Gigawatt Factory: more than 4,000,000 sq ft of factory scale-up to mass-manufacture reactors at a rate of hundreds of megawatts a year.Source ↗
2026-08Standard Nuclear · TRISO fuel maker (NYSE: STDN)Appointed Seth Cohen, DOE's former chief counsel for nuclear policy and an architect of the administration's licensing overhaul, to its board effective August 12, 2026.Source ↗
What this page does not claim
This is a tracked sample of buyer positions, not a census of every nuclear conversation. Frameworks and letters of intent are counted as what they are, never as orders; government programs create conditions for demand, not demand itself. No figure on this page is added to any other, and the race board’s binding and non-binding lanes remain the authority on megawatts. Research basis and killed assumptions: docs/research/bd-landscape.md in the repository.
